3 System Development
The Ten-Year Network Development Plan:
Imagine and model future electricity and gas systems scenarios
Scenarios are a first key step and a crucial outcome of the TYNDP process. It is a deliverable that is also increasingly used for other studies on future aspects of the energy system.
ENTSO-E and ENTSOG published their final TYNDP 2022 Scenarios Storyline Report in April 2022 and their Joint Draft Scenario Report for TYNDP 2022 in October 2021. Supply and demand data collected from both gas and electricity TSOs are used to build “National Trends”, the central policy-based scenario, reflecting Member States’ present energy and climate policies; the plan is that these will evolve to meet EU climate targets. The “Global Ambition” and “Distributed Energy” Scenarios are developed as full-energy scenarios (not limited to gas and electricity) and built in line with the Paris Agreement target, the EU climate law and binding targets of the EU-27 to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 55 % by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050.
- The scenarios utilise new sector-integration methodologies and dedicated modelling tools, both to optimise overall system efficiencies and flexibility use and to better capture the interactions and new dynamics at the interfaces between various end-use sectors, at various geographical scales and with other carriers. It is also the first time that the scenarios have modelled the hydrogen system and electrolysis configuration at the pan-European scale.
- The scenario storylines aim to sufficiently differentiate the scenarios with its key drivers for the purpose of infrastructure needs identification and project assessments within the gas and electricity TYNDPs 2022 in a fully coordinated manner. Figure 3 on the following page provides an overview of storyline differentiation based on high-level drivers.
|Distributed Energy |
Higher European autonomy with renewable and decentralised focus
Global economy with centralised low carbon and RES options
|Green Transition||At least –55 % reduction in 2030, climate neutral in 2050|
|Driving force of the energy transition||Transition initiated on local / national level (prosumers)||Transition initiated on a European / international level|
|Aims for EU energy autonomy through maximisation of RES and smart sector integration (P2G/L)||High EU RES development supplemented with low carbon energy and imports|
|Energy intentsity||Reduced energy demand through circularity and better energy consumption behaviour||Energy demand also declines, but priority is given to decarbonisation of energy supply|
|Digitalisation driven by prosumer and variable RES management||Digitalisation and automation reinforce competitiveness
of EU business.
|Technologies||Focus of decentralised technologies |
(PV, batteries, etc) and smart charging
|Focus on large scale technologies
(offshore wind, large storage)
|Focus on electric heat pumps and district heating||Focus on hybrid heating technology|
|Higher share of EV, with e-liquids and biofuels supplementing for heavy transport||Wide range of technologies across mobility sectors
(electricity, hydrogen and biofuels)
|Minimal CCS and nuclear||Integration of nuclear and CCS|
Figure 3 – Storylines differentiation based on high-level drivers
Sector integration is also one of the key aspects of the ENTSO-E position on the Review of the Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E) Regulation, published in April 2021. In this respect, emphasizes the need for a long-term holistic vision on energy infrastructure planning and for a framework that allows to integrate and coordinate various coupling solutions for different infrastructures.
The Ten-Year Network Development Plan
The TYNDP is a pan-European long-term vision of the power system. As a legal mandate deliverable (Article 30(1), Regulation 943/2019), published by ENTSO-E every two years, it is the foundation of European coordinated grid planning and the basis on which transmission projects may apply for “Projects of Common Interest” (PCI) status. The elaboration of each TYNDP is a two-year process, as described in Figure 4.
Each scenario’s impacts on energy markets and networks are analysed via a suite of tailored modelling tools. Thanks to the models, ENTSO-E can explore various system needs and the options which could address these needs. These studies make transparent and better explain which parts of the network infrastructure are fit for purpose and which need to be reinforced or supported by alternative solutions or technologies. The main role of TYNDP is thus to identify where investments in various technical solutions in the electricity system would help to release the expected system constraints, and by doing so provide a fit-for-purpose infrastructure across diverse scenarios.
This is done in two stages: performing a system needs analysis that identifies a high-level overview of constraint relief options to allow the decarbonisation of the EU power system at the lowest cost, followed by a call for transmission and storage projects (under different stages of development) across Europe, complemented by a cost benefit analysis (CBA) of their impacts under different scenarios.
The draft TYNDP 2020 was submitted to ACER for opinion in February 2021 and finally released in September 2021. During this period, work on TYNDP 2022 intensified.
141 pan-European electricity transmission projects and 23 storage projects will be assessed in TYNDP 2022 as a result of the project submission by promoters between September and October 2021. ENTSO-E will perform a CBA and will release the draft TYNDP 2022 for public consultation in 2022. Selection in the TYNDP is a pre-condition for transmission and storage projects to apply for European Projects of Common Interest status, a process led by the European Commission. The criteria and process for submitting a project to TYNDP 2022 are specified in the Guidance for transmission and storage projects, updated in August 2021 and consulted with stakeholders.
In October 2021, ENTSO-E organised a public workshop to collect stakeholders’ views on the proposed improvements to the methodology of the Identification of System Needs study to be published in the summer of 2022.
A common element of all future energy scenarios is that electricity will become the leading energy carrier (up to 65 %) and that the European electricity grid will be the backbone of the decarbonisation of all energy sectors. This is why infrastructure planning for the future power system will require a multi-sectorial approach.
The cost–benefit analysis methodology
The assessment of infrastructure and storage projects performed in the TYNDP uses a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) methodology drafted by ENTSO-E, in consultation with stakeholders. The methodology is proposed to ACER and the European Commission for, respectively, an opinion as well as further recommendations and a final decision. The CBA results are also used as the basis of the PCI selection process by policy makers. The main objective of the CBA methodology is to provide a common basis for the assessment of projects with regard to their value for European society, in line with Europe’s energy goals.
ENTSO-E developed a third version of the CBA methodology, which improves on the previous versions in its consideration of security of supply, socioeconomic welfare and storage. The draft CBA 3.0 was submitted to EC for approval in March 2021. ENTSO-E is also reviewing the CBA Implementation Guidelines that specify in further detail how the CBA methodology will be implemented in TYNDP 2022.
Ensuring resource adequacy
Resource adequacy can be defined as the continuous balance, including storage and demand side response, between supply on the one hand and demand levels on the other. Assessing the ability of a power system to cover demand in all conditions is part of the TSOs’ tasks, and, consequently, one of ENTSO-E’s most important mandates.
Due to the increasing level of variable RES, new demand patterns and ever stronger integration of energy markets across the European power system and the associated challenges for system development and operation, a pan-European analysis of resource adequacy has become ever more important. Cooperation across Europe is necessary to accelerate the development of common methodological standards, i. e. a common “language” is required to perform these studies.
Resource adequacy requires advanced methodologies to capture and analyse rare events with adverse consequences for the supply of electric power. Europe’s efforts give leading examples worldwide of how to undertake advanced assessments at a large geographic perimeter.
Resource adequacy and the Clean Energy Package
The CEP places resource adequacy in a central position in the European energy policy context. ENTSO-E published its first ERAA in November 2021. The ERAA is a pan-European projection of power system resource adequacy of up to 10 years ahead and extends vastly the scope of the earlier ENTSO-E Mid-Term Adequacy Forecasts (MAF). It is based upon state-of-the-art methodologies and probabilistic assessments, aiming to model and analyse possible events which can adversely impact the balance between supply and demand of electric power. This analysis is a valuable tool for policymakers, system operators, and other electricity stakeholders on the important path towards climate neutrality. The ERAA 2021 is a key milestone and first step towards a more advanced target methodology to be reached in coming years as new pilot methodologies are tested and discussed with stakeholders.
The ERAA 2021 shows that planning, coordination and, where necessary, targeted intervention in Europe’s power system is essential to provide secure electricity, even in the face of an unprecedented transition.
The Seasonal Outlooks
ENTSO-E’s Seasonal Outlooks (Article 30(1)f, Regulation 943/2019) are pan-European, system-wide analyses of risks to electricity security of supply. Analyses are performed twice a year to ensure a good view regarding the summer and winter and to present aligned TSOs’ views on the risks to security of supply and the countermeasures they plan for the coming season, either individually or in cooperation. Each outlook is accompanied by a review of what occurred during the previous season.
The outlooks are performed with extensive data collected from TSOs and using a common methodology. Moreover, ENTSO-E uses a common database in its assessment, the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), to determine the levels of solar and wind generation at a specific date and time. ENTSO-E analyses the effect on system adequacy of climate conditions, evolution of demand, demand management, evolution of generation capacities, and planned and forced outages.
ENTSO-E published the Summer Outlook 2021 at the end of May 2021 and the Winter Outlook 2021/2022 in November 2021.
Since 2020, and in line with the CEP, ENTSO-E has applied a probabilistic approach to its seasonal adequacy assessments – using a set of possible scenarios for each variable which enables it to detect more risks. This is in line with the methodology used in the ERAA.
Connection codes: Integrating renewables
The objectives of the three Connection Network Codes (CNCs) – Demand Connection Code (DCC), Requirements for Generators (RfG), and HVDC – are to ensure the integration of decentralised RES and the increased demand response into the power system while simultaneously maintaining security of supply and resilience at all times, and to facilitate the internal electricity market by levelling the playing field of grid users in different member states.
The implementation of connection codes is the responsibility of each EU member state. In this context, ENTSO-E acts as a platform to maintain and eventually amend CNCs; share information, guidance and best practices for national implementation processes; and monitor their progress, especially through the development and delivery of non-binding written guidance – Implementation Guidance Documents (IGDs) – to its members and other system operators. The development of IGDs is fuelled by discussions with stakeholders from the drafting phase onward, via dedicated expert groups and the Grid Connection Stakeholder Committee. From December 2020 to January 2021, ENTSO-E launched a consultation on the revision of several IGDs. These IGDs were revised and published in June 2021.
ENTSO-E monitors the implementation activities in each country via its Active library, examining in particular divergences in national implementation. The “Monitoring report on Connection Network Codes Implementation” was published in December 2021.
In accordance with Art. 59(2) RfG and 76(2) HVDC, ENTSO-E shall provide ACER with the information required to monitor the implementation of these two network codes. In response to ACER’s requests, ENTSO-E maintains summary tables for each Member State, clarifying the type of information that needs to be collected by the TSOs and DSOs.
The information will then be aggregated and submitted to ACER by 30 June each year.
ENTSO-E Annual Report 2021
This Annual Report covers the period January to December 2021. It focuses on the legal mandates given to ENTSO-E and on the Pan European All TSOs tasks, facilitated by ENTSO-E. The activities covered in this report were performed thanks to the 42 members of ENTSO-E who provide its financial resources and whose staff provides expertise to the Association.
- System Operation
- System Development
- Transparency Regulation
- Research, Development and Innovation
- Cybersecurity, Interoperability and Data
- TSO–DSO partnership and demand side flexibility